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Current Board — Live
US-Iran War · Day 40. Ceasefire announced Apr 7 is a 15-day tactical reload, not de-escalation. Three carriers + 6 B-2s + full MOP strike package being generated during the pause. IDF hits ~100 Hezbollah sites in the first 24 hours. Iran's yuan-denominated Hormuz toll goes operational at $64B/yr. Bloody Landing still dominant at 57%. New structural node: the 27→30% 'No Landing' sibling with five alt pathways.
Fragmentation
52%
Chaos
27%
US Monopoly
13%
Diplomatic
8%
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Latest Signal
SIGNAL #004
08 April 2026 · Week 7
The Reload
Day 40. Ceasefire holding on the US-Iran track, fracturing on Lebanon. Force generation continues inside the 15-day pause window. Both sides are repositioning, not negotiating.
  • Three carriers + 6 B-2s + MOP strike package generating inside the ceasefire window — Force generation is continuing through the 15-day pause.
  • Ceasefire fractures on Lebanon in <24h — IDF hits ~100 Hezbollah sites in 10 minutes — Largest single IDF action of the war, executed hours after Iran-US ceasefire announced.
  • Hormuz toll booth operational — yuan-denominated, $64B/yr on-record — Hormuz converted from wartime blockade into a permanent yuan-denominated chokepoint rent.
Frag 52%Chao 27%US M 13%Dipl 8%
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Full Analysis

Signal #004 – The Reload

On April 7, the United States and Iran announced a ceasefire.

On April 8, Israel hit a hundred Hezbollah targets in ten minutes, Iran started charging ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz in Chinese yuan, and three US carrier strike groups continued loading the largest bunker-buster strike package assembled since the Gulf War.

This isn’t a peace deal. It is a 15-day tactical reload.

Here is what actually happened during the week everyone exhaled.

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