Signal Archive

Every weekly briefing since launch. Every probability shift documented. Every prediction timestamped and verifiable. This is the track record.

Dual-blockade superposition — Trump announces US Hormuz blockade over Iran's rial-denominated toll — Trump announces a US blockade of Hormuz on Apr 12 while Iran runs the rial-denominated yuan toll on the same waterway (toll switch from dollars to rials registered Apr 10).
Three carrier strike groups in CENTCOM AOR — first since 2003 Iraq — USS Bush CSG confirmed transatlantic to the Indian Ocean; third CSG now on station in CENTCOM AOR.
War Powers Resolution to limit hostilities fails 213–214 — legal envelope by one vote — 213 members voted to constrain the executive; 214 did not.

Three carriers + 6 B-2s + MOP strike package generating inside the ceasefire window — Force generation is continuing through the 15-day pause.
Ceasefire fractures on Lebanon in <24h — IDF hits ~100 Hezbollah sites in 10 minutes — Largest single IDF action of the war, executed hours after Iran-US ceasefire announced.
Hormuz toll booth operational — yuan-denominated, $64B/yr on-record — Hormuz converted from wartime blockade into a permanent yuan-denominated chokepoint rent.

CIPS yuan surge hits 900B/month — Iran launches yuan toll on Hormuz — China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System processing war-driven flows at record volumes.
112 C-17s deploy across Atlantic — largest air mobility since OIF 2003 — ADS-B data shows 112 C-17 Globemasters crossing the Atlantic to Middle East bases.
Trump's third deadline cycle — 48 hours → walked back → 'productive talks' — Apr 4: 'All Hell will reign down — 48 hours.' Apr 6: called off citing 'good and productive peace talks.' Same cycle as Mar 26.

Ukraine destroys Russia’s largest Baltic oil port — two nights running — Ust-Luga (700K bbl/day capacity) hit by mass drone strike.
AR 601-210 expedited revision — enlistment age raised to 42 — Army raises max enlistment age from 35 to 42 for both prior and non-prior service.
Trump’s 5-day pause expires tomorrow (Fri) — after US markets close — Announced 23 Mar with threat to "hit and obliterate" power plants if Hormuz doesn’t open.

Trump announces 5-day "pause" — threatens to obliterate power plants — Trump threatens to "hit and obliterate" Iran’s power plants if Hormuz doesn’t open within 48 hours, then announces a 5-day strike pause "for talks." Iran’s foreign ministry denied any negotiations within the hour.
Brent crude drops $15 in 4 hours on a single social media post — ~$113 → ~$98 within hours.
China negotiates separate Hormuz passage for its tankers — China conducting bilateral talks with Iran to secure passage for Chinese-flagged vessels.