The NYT surfaces what OSINT could only suspect: Beijing quietly pushed Iran toward negotiations with Washington during the war, building diplomatic capital Xi intends to spend at the Trump summit. The asking price — movement on Taiwan.

Two Chinese tracks run in parallel. Public: neutrality, talks-brokering, measured statements. Covert: TEE-01B satellite C4ISR enabling Iranian strikes on US bases (FT). The same actor is mediator and quartermaster. That is not contradiction — that is leverage architecture.

For the bifurcation tree this doesn't directly move BIF-1, but it shapes the macro environment for every post-BIF-1 outcome. A tacit Iran-for-Taiwan trade at the summit would give L0 US Monopoly a diplomatic pathway. Absent such a deal, the Fragmentation trajectory continues to accumulate weight.