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Event Archive

Every significant signal — scored, sourced, and analyzed. Multimedia evidence pages showing what happened, what it means for the model, and the gap between words and actions.

April 8, 2026

24
HormuzToll RegimeIranDeclaratory SignalDurability LockSignal-004
08 April 2026
Iran On-Record: $64B/yr from Hormuz Toll Regime
Iranian state TV publicly claims the new Hormuz control regime will generate +$64B/year, framed as permanent reconstruction revenue — Tehran baking the wartime toll booth into declared state policy during the 15-day ceasefire window.
Signal #004
35
IsfahanCSARF-15EMC-130JCapability CeilingCost CurveCeasefire DriverSignal-004
03–06 April 2026
Isfahan Black Op: F-15E Down, 6 Airframes Lost in CSAR
F-15E Strike Eagle shot down deep inside Iran 3 April; CSAR op recovered both crew but destroyed 2 MC-130J Commando II + 4 rotary airframes in place — the hidden cost-curve driver behind the 7 April ceasefire, and a demonstrated capability ceiling for deep-inland rescue operations.
Signal #004
BIF-1 Branch A — Swift Capture 17 → 16% ▼BIF-1 Branch B — Bloody Landing 57 → 58% ▲Endgame US Monopoly 12 → 11% ▼
35
L1 BIF-1BIF-3 monitoringCeasefireWords vs ActionsKhameneiTurkeyMediation
08 April 2026
Khamenei Personally Authorized 2-Week Truce; US and Iran Operating on Incompatible Texts
Axios backchannel reconstruction reveals Supreme Leader made the call for first time since war began. Pakistan+Egypt+Turkey mediation triad (Turkey previously unreported). Pentagon called situation 'madness' 72h before deal. Critical flaw: US assured Israel Iran would denuclearize; Iran denies any such demand.
Signal #004
BIF-1 Ground Op 73% → 71% ▼Branch C (Op Delayed) 27% → 32% ▲Branch B (Bloody Landing) 55% → 52% ▼
21
Robert PapeFourth PoleNarrative WarInformation OperationsCeasefire DurabilitySource LaunderingSignal-004
08 April 2026
Pape 'Fourth Pole' Framing — Narrative-War Signal
Iranian state media (Pars Today) quotes Robert Pape (U Chicago, leading air-power scholar) calling the Iran outcome the 'largest US strategic defeat since Vietnam' and framing Iran as the fourth global pole. Attribution chain is single-source; verification pending. Pairs with the Hormuz $64B event as coordinated Iranian declaratory campaign during the 15-day ceasefire window.
Signal #004
35
BIF-1CeasefireVanceIslamabadWords vs Actions
08 April 2026
15-Day Tactical Reload: Vance Concedes 'Fragile Truce'
Verified VP on-record quotes and a complete corroboration stack expose the ceasefire as mutual rearmament, not peace.
Signal #004
BIF-1 Ground Op 72% → 73% ▲Branch B Bloody Landing 54% → 55% ▲Branch C Op Delayed 30% → 28% ▼
35
BIF-1Branch ATomahawkMunitionsPacificWords vs Actions
08 April 2026
The Tomahawk Crisis: Magazine Depth Behind the Ceasefire
850+ Tomahawks fired in 4 weeks, ~10% of US inventory in 3 days, 5 years minimum to replenish — the munitions constraint driving the 2-week pause.
Signal #004
Branch A Swift Capture 18% → 17% ▼Branch C Op Delayed 28% → 29% ▲Endgame US Monopoly 13% → 12% ▼

April 7, 2026

35
Layer-1Market DataBrentPortfolio CompassCeasefire
07 April 2026
Brent -16% on Ceasefire — Market Prices Hormuz Reopening
One of the largest single-day Brent declines in modern trading as Trump's 2-week halt + SNSC acceptance + Pakistan Hormuz push hit tape concurrently.
Signal #004

April 6, 2026

32
BIF-1Branch BSouth ParsIsraelWords vs ActionsAsset Stripping
06 April 2026
Israel Strikes South Pars, Kills IRGC Intel Chief Mid-Mediation
Israeli strike on Iran's #1 energy revenue node and flag-rank IRGC KIA during active ceasefire mediation — definitional words-vs-actions event.
Signal #004
Branch B Bloody Landing 55% → 56% ▲Branch C Op Delayed 29% → 28% ▼

April 4, 2026

30
L1 BIF-1Ground OperationPhase 3LogisticsEscalation PrecursorImminent Decision Point
04 April 2026
112 C-17s Deploy Across Atlantic to Middle East
Largest US military airlift since Desert Storm. 10+ aircraft visible in single FlightRadar24 snapshot crossing eastern Canada. Coordinated movement suggests operational rather than routine logistics. BIF-1 contingency forces now in transit.
Signal #003
BIF-1 Ground Op 70% → 72% ▲Branch B (Bloody Landing) 40% → 45% ▲Branch A (Swift Capture) 35% → 30% ▼
25
L1 BIF-1L0 GulfIRGCData-CentersCoalition-PressureAsymmetricR4-loop
04 April 2026
IRGC Strikes Across 3 Gulf States + Israel — Coalition Pressure Doctrine
IRGC claims simultaneous strikes on US military assets in Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, plus Oracle data center and Israeli targets. Target list reveals asymmetric doctrine: attack the political coalition and tech economic interests enabling US force projection.
Signal #003
Branch A (Swift Capture) 27% → 26% ▼Branch B (Bloody Landing) 46% → 47% ▲Fragmentation (Endgame) 45% → 46% ▲
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