The Map

Right now, 4,500 Marines and the 82nd Airborne are positioned off the coast of Iran. A five-day operational pause expires within hours. The probability that the United States launches a ground operation against Kharg Island and the Hormuz coastline is 70%. This is the most consequential military decision since the invasion of Iraq.

The tree above is our model of what happens next. Every box is a scenario. Every line is a path the world could take. Every percentage is a probability updated weekly from observable actions — carrier movements, strike patterns, force positioning, infrastructure hits. Not opinions. Not talking heads. We track ships, not tweets.

What Already Happened

Phase 1 · Buildup ran through January and February. Two carrier strike groups rotated into the Gulf. THAAD and Patriot batteries were forward-deployed. The diplomatic noise was loud. The hardware movements were louder. By late February, the pieces were set. This phase is complete. It went exactly as modeled.

Phase 2 · Air Campaign began on February 28. Over 900 strikes on day one. Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed. The Iranian Navy ceased to exist as a fighting force. Air superiority was achieved in 72 hours. Phase two is complete.

Where We Are Now — BIF-1: Ground Operation

Phase 3 is where the tree splits. The ground operation decision — what we call BIF-1 — is the first bifurcation point. It branches into three distinct futures:

Swift Capture (30%) — US forces seize Kharg Island within 48–72 hours with fewer than 100 casualties. Iranian oil exports are severed. The operation is declared a success. If this happens, the tree continues downward to Regime Collapse — the Iranian opposition takes power, a new Japan-model client state emerges. From there, the world reaches either US Monopoly (America locks energy supply) or Fragmentation (multi-bloc world, no clear winner). This is the "clean" path.

Bloody Landing (45%) — the most likely single branch. An Iranian anti-ship cruise missile connects with a landing vessel. Casualties exceed 300 in a single engagement. The political shockwave changes everything. This triggers the second bifurcation point.

Op Delayed (25%) — the pause extends. Forces are not ready, or the political will falters. The air campaign continues without ground commitment. This sounds like the cautious path. It is not. A stalled US operation opens a window that other actors are watching. This triggers the third bifurcation point.

If Bloody Landing — BIF-2: The Nuclear Gate

High casualties and a stalled ground operation create political conditions where the use of low-yield tactical nuclear weapons enters the decision space. We are not predicting this. We are tracking the conditions under which it becomes possible. BIF-2: TNW Gate branches three ways:

TNW Deployed (20%) — sub-kiloton strikes on Fordow, Natanz, and IRGC bunkers. The nuclear threshold is crossed. Credibility is restored through fear. The world reaches US Monopoly — hegemony enforced by demonstrated willingness to use the ultimate weapon.

Blocked Internally (15%) — the Joint Chiefs refuse the order. Constitutional crisis. The chain of command fractures. No coherent plan survives. The world reaches Chaos — internal collapse compounding external overextension.

Conventional Collapse (30%) — the Iranian regime falls without nuclear weapons, through sustained air and economic pressure. The war ends, but the world it leaves behind is fractured. Multiple power blocs consolidate. The world reaches Fragmentation.

If Op Delayed — BIF-3: The Russia Window

A stalled US operation, with forces and attention committed to the Gulf, creates an opening. This week's Ukrainian strike on Ust-Luga — Russia's largest Baltic oil port, halting 40% of Russian oil exports — shows that the pressure campaign is already accelerating in parallel. The branches interact. Nothing is isolated. BIF-3: Russia Window splits three ways:

RU Offensive (25%) — Russia launches a major push in Ukraine while US air defense assets are deployed to the Gulf. American overstretch is exposed. Two simultaneous crises with no reserves. The world reaches Chaos.

RU Diplomacy (35%) — Russia offers a package deal linking Iran and Ukraine. A grand bargain. Hormuz opens, hostilities wind down, territorial adjustments are formalized. The world reaches Diplomatic Exit — the only path to de-escalation. Currently at just 10% total probability.

RU Status Quo (40%) — Russia keeps waiting. No offensive, no deal. Strategic patience. Accumulating position while the US bleeds resources in the Gulf. A prolonged stalemate. Blocs solidify. The world reaches Fragmentation.

The Bigger Picture

The Iran War is not a standalone event. It is Phase 3 of a five-operation US strategy for energy dominance: Canada (tariff leverage) ✓ › Venezuela (sanctions flip) ✓ › Iran (military) ◆ › Gulf subordination › Russia/China containment. The first two moves are complete. The fifth is running ahead of schedule. Understanding any single event without seeing the full board is how you get surprised. Read the full strategic thesis >

This is the model. The signals update it. The events test it. Every node in the tree above corresponds to a section in this briefing. Every probability is calibrated from observable data. Every week, new signals shift the numbers. Scroll back up and explore.