Signal #003
Event Score: 25/40
28 February – 03 April 2026 · Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia (PSAB), Iraq
US Aircraft Losses After 35 Days: ~30 Platforms, E-3 AWACS, 17 Reapers
Cumulative assessment: F-35 damaged, 4 F-15Es lost (3 friendly fire), E-3 AWACS destroyed at PSAB, 7+ KC-135 tankers hit, 17 MQ-9 Reapers destroyed. 365 WIA, 13 KIA. Atlantic Council warns Indo-Pacific readiness degrading.
Reliability 5/10
Actionability 8/10
Novelty 5/10
Corroboration 7/10
Key Facts
~30
Aircraft destroyed or damaged in 35 days — comparable to Gulf War 1991 rate
13 KIA
Official killed in action — far below 500 KIA B3 loop threshold
365 WIA
Wounded in action — Military.com headline indicates growing media attention
$3B+
Estimated total platform cost of destroyed/damaged aircraft
What Happened

An OSINT compilation from @EGYOSINT aggregates US military aircraft losses over the first 35 days of Operation Epic Fury (28 Feb – 03 Apr 2026). The aggregate picture: approximately 30 aircraft destroyed or damaged, including an F-35 damaged by Iranian SAM, 4 F-15Es lost (3 to friendly fire over Kuwait, 1 shot down over Iran), an E-3 AWACS destroyed at PSAB (~$700M), 7+ KC-135 tankers hit, and 17 MQ-9 Reapers destroyed (~$510M).

Support asset catastrophe: E-3 AWACS (low-density/high-demand platform) destroyed at PSAB. KC-135 fleet stressed. 17 Reapers lost degrades ISR over Kharg/Hormuz. These cannot be quickly replaced — years to produce.

Official casualties stand at 365 wounded in action and 13 killed in action (Military.com, sourcing CENTCOM). The 13 KIA figure is well below the B3 loop activation threshold (500 KIA) but the 365 WIA number is generating increasing media attention. The attrition rate is comparable to Gulf War 1991 on a per-day basis.

C2 strain visible: 75% of F-15E losses (3 of 4) were friendly fire. Indicates systemic stress in multi-domain operations. Atlantic Council warns: Operation Epic Fury is 'consuming military assets at a rate measurably reducing U.S. readiness in the Indo-Pacific.' Every asset in Iran = one unavailable for China/Ukraine contingencies.
Timeline
28 Feb
Operation Epic Fury begins. 900+ strikes day 1.
01 Mar
3 F-15Es lost to friendly fire over Kuwait. CENTCOM: 'apparent friendly fire incident.'
Mid-Mar
E-3 AWACS destroyed at PSAB. Method of attack unclear — cruise missile, drone, or ground action.
03 Apr
F-15E shot down over Iran. One crew rescued, search continues for second. First manned US aircraft lost over Iranian territory.
04 Apr
Cumulative assessment published. Military.com: 365 WIA, 13 KIA. @EGYOSINT compiles aircraft loss infographic.
Words vs Actions
Words
  • 'Air superiority achieved' — model assessment from Signal 002
  • 'Operation Epic Fury' — decisive operation branding implying controlled escalation
Actions
  • F-15E shot down over Iran — airspace is contested, not supremacy
  • E-3 AWACS destroyed at 'secure' rear base (PSAB) — IRGC has rear-area reach
  • 17 Reapers lost — ISR degradation affecting surveillance of Kharg/Hormuz approaches
  • 3 F-15Es lost to friendly fire — C2 under strain in multi-domain environment
Air superiority is real but not absolute. Iran's IADS is degraded but adaptive — scoring occasional hits that degrade high-value support assets (AWACS, tankers, ISR). The gap between 'air superiority' and the attrition picture is manageable for an air-only campaign but becomes critical if ground operations require persistent close air support in contested littoral.
Model Impact
BIF-1 Air Umbrella Degradation — Support Asset Attrition
The cumulative aircraft loss picture after 35 days reveals that while fighter attrition is manageable, the degradation of support assets (E-3 AWACS, KC-135 tankers, MQ-9 Reapers) is the strategic concern. These low-density/high-demand platforms cannot be quickly replaced and their loss directly reduces the air umbrella available for any BIF-1 ground operation.
Branch B (Bloody Landing) gains +1% — a ground force operating under a thinner air umbrella, with reduced ISR and degraded C2 (friendly fire pattern), faces higher risk. Atlantic Council's Indo-Pacific readiness warning strengthens R2 (Russian Window) loop — every asset consumed in Iran is one unavailable for other contingencies.
See on The Map: BIF-1 · GROUND OP >
Branch A (Swift Capture)26% → 25% ▼
Branch B (Bloody Landing)47% → 48% ▲
Sources
< Signal #003All Events >