Event Archive

Every significant signal — scored, sourced, and analyzed. Multimedia evidence pages showing what happened, what it means for the model, and the gap between words and actions.

May 2, 2026

L1 BIF-1DiplomacyNL-3Russia-IranNuclear

Iran 3-Point Proposal Rejected by Trump

Iran offered to reopen Hormuz and lift blockade while delaying nuclear talks. Trump rejected — demands nuclear guarantees first.

NL-3 Negotiated Freeze 10% → 9% ▼Diplomatic Endgame 4% → 3% ▼Fragmentation Endgame 58% → 59% ▲

R1 Hormuz SpiralEnergy CrisisSupply DisruptionEndgame Fragmentation

HFI: Hormuz = 4x Largest Supply Disruption Ever

HFI Research declares Hormuz closure is 4x the largest oil supply disruption in history, 'point of no return' if prolonged past April.

Endgame: Fragmentation 58% → 60% ▲+2 (cluster-level)

Hormuz StraitLNGBlockadeToll RegimeLayer 1 Observable

First LNG Tanker Crosses Hormuz Since War Start

LNG tanker successfully transits Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the US-Iran war began, testing blockade permeability.

Endgame: Fragmentation 58% → 60% ▲+2 (cluster-level)

OPECUAECartel CollapseEndgame FragmentationEnergy MarketsStructural Shift

UAE Exits OPEC and OPEC+

UAE announces exit from OPEC and OPEC+, breaking 57 years of cartel discipline and signaling 'every nation for itself' in energy markets.

Endgame: Fragmentation 58% → 60% ▲+2 (cluster-level)Endgame: Diplomatic 4% → 2% ▼-2 (cluster-level)

L1 BIF-1Force GenerationHypersonicStrike CapabilityBranch B

Dark Eagle Hypersonic: CENTCOM's First Combat Request

CENTCOM requests Mach 5+ Dark Eagle missile to reach Iranian launchers dispersed beyond Tomahawk range. First US hypersonic combat deployment.

Branch B Bloody Landing 62% → 63% ▲Branch A Swift Capture 9% → 8% ▼BIF-2 CONV 37% → 38% ▲

L1 BIF-1Fleet MovementForce PostureCarrier RotationOPTEMPO

Ford Leaving ME for Repairs After Fire, 309 Days

NYT reports CVN-78 Ford departing Middle East for urgent repair after March 12 fire; 9-month deployment. Bush CSG replaces, US drops from 3 to 2 carriers.

Branch C (Op Delayed) 29% → 30% ▲Branch A (Swift Capture) 9% → 8% ▼

L1 BIF-1Energy InfrastructureHormuz ClosureSaudi OilForce PostureYanbu

Yanbu at 4.6M bbl/day — Hormuz Closure Physical Proof

Saudi oil rerouted to Red Sea coast at record volumes. 30+ tankers queuing, 5-day wait. Bainbridge/Hudner protecting terminal for 25 days before departing with Ford.

L1 BIF-1Force PostureThreat AssessmentOSINTA2/AD

Ford Whiteboard: Missile 15nm, Drone 5nm, 309 Days

Crew whiteboard photo from CVN-78 reveals closest threat approaches (15nm missile, 5nm drone), 3 GQ events, 2 countries bombed, 1 president kidnapped.

L1 BIF-1bBlockadeShadow FleetWords vs ActionsIran-ChinaMaritime

26 Shadow Fleet Vessels Breach US Naval Blockade

Lloyd's List confirms 26 vessels including 11 laden tankers bypassed blockade since Apr 13. Pentagon denies. Layer 1 data contradicts official narrative.

NL-1 (Frozen Conflict) 43% -> 44% ▲Branch C (Op Delayed) 29% -> 30% ▲Branch B (Bloody Landing) 62% -> 61% ▼

SulfurSupply Chain CascadeR1 Hormuz SpiralFertilizerEndgame Fragmentation

Sulfur Prices +80% as War Disrupts Supply Chain

Sulfur prices surge from $500 to $900/ton as 24% of global supply from Southwest Asia faces disruption, threatening defense, AI, and chip production.

Endgame: Fragmentation 58% → 60% ▲+2 (cluster-level)

Page 1 of 11Next >