Event Archive

USS Tripoli (LHA-7) + 31st MEU entered CENTCOM AOR late March with ~3,500 personnel — not the 20,000 Marines OSINT channels claim. A narrative correction event: the observed force is coercive signaling + NEO/CSAR + island-raid capable, but insufficient for mainland amphibious assault without a second ARG.

Lincoln CSG on station, Ford CSG deployment extended to 11 months, Bush CSG sortied Norfolk 7 days before truce. Tripoli ARG in theater, Boxer ARG accelerated from San Diego. 6 B-2 Spirits confirmed at Diego Garcia 2026-04-01 via Planet Labs — exactly the 2025 Fordow strike package. Every decision pre-dates the ceasefire; none were reversed.

Netanyahu declares ceasefire does not cover Lebanon; IDF executes largest single-day strike wave of the war in ~10 minutes on Apr 8 — ceasefire did not survive 24 hours on the Lebanon axis.

IRGC toll regime on Strait of Hormuz verified operational with yuan/stablecoin settlement; ceasefire locks in rather than dismantles structural USD attack.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council ratified a 2-week halt Apr 8 with embedded conditions (Hormuz under Iranian AF, sanctions relief, US base withdrawal) Trump has not publicly agreed to.

Iranian state TV publicly claims the new Hormuz control regime will generate +$64B/year, framed as permanent reconstruction revenue — Tehran baking the wartime toll booth into declared state policy during the 15-day ceasefire window.

F-15E Strike Eagle shot down deep inside Iran 3 April; CSAR op recovered both crew but destroyed 2 MC-130J Commando II + 4 rotary airframes in place — the hidden cost-curve driver behind the 7 April ceasefire, and a demonstrated capability ceiling for deep-inland rescue operations.

Axios backchannel reconstruction reveals Supreme Leader made the call for first time since war began. Pakistan+Egypt+Turkey mediation triad (Turkey previously unreported). Pentagon called situation 'madness' 72h before deal. Critical flaw: US assured Israel Iran would denuclearize; Iran denies any such demand.

Iranian state media (Pars Today) quotes Robert Pape (U Chicago, leading air-power scholar) calling the Iran outcome the 'largest US strategic defeat since Vietnam' and framing Iran as the fourth global pole. Attribution chain is single-source; verification pending. Pairs with the Hormuz $64B event as coordinated Iranian declaratory campaign during the 15-day ceasefire window.

Verified VP on-record quotes and a complete corroboration stack expose the ceasefire as mutual rearmament, not peace.