Event Archive
Every significant signal — scored, sourced, and analyzed. Multimedia evidence pages showing what happened, what it means for the model, and the gap between words and actions.
May 2, 2026
01 May 2026
Ford CSG Enters Suez Heading Home — 4 DDGs Depart
Ford with Churchill, Mahan, Bainbridge, and Hudner transit Suez Canal northbound May 1. Bush CSG confirmed in NW Arabian Sea with Lincoln. US drops to 2 carriers.
Signal #007
Branch C (Op Delayed) 29% → 30% ▲Branch A (Swift Capture) 9% → 8% ▼
01 May 2026
IAEA: World Faces Largest Energy Crisis in History
IAEA declares world is facing the largest energy crisis in history as oil and gas markets experience extreme difficulty.
Signal #007
Endgame: Fragmentation 58% → 60% ▲+2 (cluster-level)
01 May 2026
Iran Oil Exports Collapse >80% Under US Blockade
Iran's crude oil exports fall over 80% as US naval blockade cuts the country's primary revenue source.
Signal #007
Endgame: Fragmentation 58% → 60% ▲+2 (cluster-level)
01 May 2026
Trump-Xi Summit Locked: May 14-15 Beijing
36-hour summit confirmed with rare-earth, trade, and Iran agenda. USTR Greer signals 'stability not reset.' Highest-leverage event for NL-3/NL-4 trajectory.
Signal #007
NL-3 (Negotiated Freeze) 11% -> 12% ▲NL-4 (Pacific Pivot) 13% -> 14% ▲NL-1 (Frozen Conflict) 43% -> 41% ▼
01 May 2026
US Becomes Net Crude Oil Exporter
US achieves net crude oil exporter status for the first time — exporting more crude than importing, without counting refined products.
Signal #007
Endgame: US Monopoly 9% → 9% HOLD
01 May 2026
WPR 60-Day Clock: Trump Declares War 'Terminated'
Trump tells Congress hostilities 'terminated' to bypass War Powers deadline while 3 carrier strike groups remain on station.
Signal #007
NL-3 Negotiated Freeze 11% → 10% ▼NL-1 Indefinite Reload 43% → 44% ▲BIF-1 Gate 78% HOLD
May 1, 2026
01 May 2026
White House Notifies Congress: War With Iran 'Over'
Associated Press: White House formally notified Congress that it considers the war with Iran officially over. Military posture contradicts declaration.
Signal #007
BIF-1 Ground Op 78% → 65% ▼No-Landing 22% → 35% ▲NL-1 Frozen Conflict 43% → 50% ▲
01 May 2026
Ford Departs After 309 Days — Tankers Stay, Grip Loosens
CVN-78 Ford returning home after epic 309-day deployment. Tehran false alarm. Destroyers at Yanbu. KC-46/KC-135 tankers remain forward. Dark Eagle mentioned. 3→2 carriers.
Signal #007
BIF-1 Ground Op 78% → 65% ▼No-Landing 22% → 35% ▲NL-1 Frozen Conflict 43% → 50% ▲
01 May 2026
CENTCOM Briefs Trump on 'Final Blow' to Iran
CENTCOM commander briefs President Trump on a 'final blow' to Iran per Fox News. Briefing coincides with 'war is over' declarations — extreme Words vs Actions divergence.
Signal #007
BIF-1 Ground Op Gate 78% → 79% ▲C (Op Delayed) 29% → 28% ▼