Event Archive
Every significant signal — scored, sourced, and analyzed. Multimedia evidence pages showing what happened, what it means for the model, and the gap between words and actions.
April 14, 2026
14 April 2026
Report: US Blockade of Iranian Ports Set to Disrupt Food Imports
Humanitarian pressure activates: physical restriction of food-grain shipments translates blockade pressure from energy to civilian supply.
Signal #005
14 April 2026
Iran Claims $270B Damage, Demands Reparations from US and Gulf Monarchies
Iran stacks reparations demand onto Hormuz toll; structural non-negotiation posture.
Signal #005
Endgame Fragmentation 52% → 53% ▲ (shared)
14 April 2026
VP Vance: 'US Goals Achieved' — While Blockade Continues and Iran-China Rail Works
Words-vs-actions HIGH: wind-down language from VP vs. Trump blockade force posture; Iran-China rail corridor functions around maritime blockade.
Signal #005
14 April 2026
Entire E-11 BACN Fleet Now Forward-Deployed in Middle East
100% of USAF E-11 systems-integrator aircraft now in CENTCOM AOR — a posture never reached in 12-Day War or Venezuela operation.
Signal #005
BIF-1 Gate 70% → 73% ▲ (shared with 3-CSG event)
April 13, 2026
13 April 2026
USNI Confirms USS Bush CSG Transatlantic to Indian Ocean
Third US carrier strike group transiting via West Africa to western Indian Ocean with three Arleigh Burke DDGs and USNS Arctic supply ship.
Signal #005
NL-2 Probation Status Probation continues (2 of 4 triggers met)
13 April 2026
War Powers Resolution Analysis — 60-Day Window, 30-Day Extension, Loopholes, Libya Precedent
Legal framework that enables Trump to sustain operations: isolated-strike theory resets the 60-day clock; ceasefire = reset; talks as narrative cover.
Signal #005
April 12, 2026
12 April 2026
Erdogan Threatens Military Action Against Israel — Libya/Karabakh Analogue
First public military threat from a NATO member against Israel in the current conflict; Erdogan invokes Turkish expeditionary precedent.
Signal #005
Endgame Fragmentation 52% → 53% ▲ (shared)
12 April 2026
Trump Announces US Blockade of Hormuz
After 21-hour Islamabad talks fail, Trump declares US Navy will intercept vessels entering/exiting Hormuz and ships that paid Iran for transit.
Signal #005
BIF-1 Gate (Ground Op) 70% → 73% ▲Branch B Bloody Landing 57% → 60% ▲Branch A Swift Capture 15% → 13% ▼