Event Archive
Every significant signal — scored, sourced, and analyzed. Multimedia evidence pages showing what happened, what it means for the model, and the gap between words and actions.
April 16, 2026
16 April 2026
Three US CSG Converging on Persian Gulf — First Since 2003
Ford in East Med, Lincoln on station, Bush transatlantic via Africa; possible French CdG participation. NL-2 probation trigger ≥2 of 4 confirmed.
Signal #005
BIF-1 Gate 70% → 73% ▲NL sibling 30% → 27% ▼NL-2 MOP Enforcement (weight) 28% hold (probation continues)
16 April 2026
CNN Satellite Imagery: Iran Repairs Missile Bases During Ceasefire
Multiple sites show active repair equipment and crew activity; Iran treats ceasefire as reload window not diplomatic pause.
Signal #005
Branch B Bloody Landing 57% → 60% ▲ (shared)NL-1 Indefinite Reload 40% → 38% ▼
16 April 2026
US Crude Oil Exports Hit Record 5.2 mbd
US export capacity maxes out as OPEC flow sits at 40-year low — monopoly-consolidation counterpart to the producer-side signal.
Signal #005
16 April 2026
FT: Iran Used Chinese TEE-01B Satellite to Target US Bases
0.5m-resolution satellite covertly acquired from Earth Eye via 'on-orbit delivery' model; Emposat ground stations accessed; deal size ~$36.6M.
Signal #005
Branch B Bloody Landing 57% → 60% ▲ (shared)Endgame Fragmentation 52% → 53% ▲ (shared)
April 15, 2026
15 April 2026
WaPo: US Deploys Thousands of Additional Troops to Middle East
Force generation continues in parallel to 3-CSG convergence and E-11 BACN saturation.
Signal #005
BIF-1 Gate 70% → 73% ▲ (shared)
15 April 2026
NYC: 90 Anti-War Protesters Arrested at Congressional Offices
First organized anti-Iran-war civil disobedience wave in NYC; modest scale but structurally early in a 40-day conflict.
Signal #005
April 14, 2026
14 April 2026
AP: US May Sanction Chinese and Arab Banks Over Iran Business
Secondary-sanctions escalation pairs with Rubio's 5-year-expiration statement — tool use intensifying even as tool legitimacy erodes.
Signal #005
Endgame Fragmentation 52% → 53% ▲ (shared with Rubio+toll-rials)
14 April 2026
South Korea Sends Envoy to Iran; Offers to Pay Hormuz Toll for 26 Stuck Ships
US ally negotiates bilaterally with Iran on Hormuz toll payment — third-party legitimization of the toll regime.
Signal #005
Endgame Fragmentation 52% → 53% ▲ (shared)
14 April 2026
US Begins Hormuz Blockade; Lincoln CSG Redeploys
Destroyers and littoral combat ships operate in Gulf of Oman; Lincoln CSG redeployed to provide air cover; formation consistent with amphibious precursor, not standard interdiction.
Signal #005
Branch B Bloody Landing 57% → 60% ▲NL-1 Indefinite Reload 40% → 38% ▼
14 April 2026
Chevron Expands Stake in PDVSA Joint Venture — L0 Venezuela Consolidation
Chevron and Venezuelan government sign two agreements increasing Chevron's share in PDVSA JV; parallel L0 Energy Monopoly track while Middle East escalates.
Signal #005