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Event Archive

Every significant signal — scored, sourced, and analyzed. Multimedia evidence pages showing what happened, what it means for the model, and the gap between words and actions.

April 16, 2026

36
L1 BIF-1NL-2Force-postureCarriers
16 April 2026
Three US CSG Converging on Persian Gulf — First Since 2003
Ford in East Med, Lincoln on station, Bush transatlantic via Africa; possible French CdG participation. NL-2 probation trigger ≥2 of 4 confirmed.
Signal #005
BIF-1 Gate 70% → 73% ▲NL sibling 30% → 27% ▼NL-2 MOP Enforcement (weight) 28% hold (probation continues)
26
L1 BIF-1Words-vs-ActionsCeasefireReload
16 April 2026
CNN Satellite Imagery: Iran Repairs Missile Bases During Ceasefire
Multiple sites show active repair equipment and crew activity; Iran treats ceasefire as reload window not diplomatic pause.
Signal #005
Branch B Bloody Landing 57% → 60% ▲ (shared)NL-1 Indefinite Reload 40% → 38% ▼
22
L0 MonopolyOilUS-exportsOPEC
16 April 2026
US Crude Oil Exports Hit Record 5.2 mbd
US export capacity maxes out as OPEC flow sits at 40-year low — monopoly-consolidation counterpart to the producer-side signal.
Signal #005
27
L0 FragmentationC4ISRChinaNovelty
16 April 2026
FT: Iran Used Chinese TEE-01B Satellite to Target US Bases
0.5m-resolution satellite covertly acquired from Earth Eye via 'on-orbit delivery' model; Emposat ground stations accessed; deal size ~$36.6M.
Signal #005
Branch B Bloody Landing 57% → 60% ▲ (shared)Endgame Fragmentation 52% → 53% ▲ (shared)

April 15, 2026

23
L1 BIF-1Force-postureTroops
15 April 2026
WaPo: US Deploys Thousands of Additional Troops to Middle East
Force generation continues in parallel to 3-CSG convergence and E-11 BACN saturation.
Signal #005
BIF-1 Gate 70% → 73% ▲ (shared)
20
B3DomesticNYCProtest
15 April 2026
NYC: 90 Anti-War Protesters Arrested at Congressional Offices
First organized anti-Iran-war civil disobedience wave in NYC; modest scale but structurally early in a 40-day conflict.
Signal #005

April 14, 2026

22
L0 FragmentationSanctionsChinaGCC
14 April 2026
AP: US May Sanction Chinese and Arab Banks Over Iran Business
Secondary-sanctions escalation pairs with Rubio's 5-year-expiration statement — tool use intensifying even as tool legitimacy erodes.
Signal #005
Endgame Fragmentation 52% → 53% ▲ (shared with Rubio+toll-rials)
24
HormuzTollThird-partyFragmentation
14 April 2026
South Korea Sends Envoy to Iran; Offers to Pay Hormuz Toll for 26 Stuck Ships
US ally negotiates bilaterally with Iran on Hormuz toll payment — third-party legitimization of the toll regime.
Signal #005
Endgame Fragmentation 52% → 53% ▲ (shared)
33
L1 BIF-1NavalBlockadeAmphibious
14 April 2026
US Begins Hormuz Blockade; Lincoln CSG Redeploys
Destroyers and littoral combat ships operate in Gulf of Oman; Lincoln CSG redeployed to provide air cover; formation consistent with amphibious precursor, not standard interdiction.
Signal #005
Branch B Bloody Landing 57% → 60% ▲NL-1 Indefinite Reload 40% → 38% ▼
22
L0 MonopolyVenezuelaEnergy
14 April 2026
Chevron Expands Stake in PDVSA Joint Venture — L0 Venezuela Consolidation
Chevron and Venezuelan government sign two agreements increasing Chevron's share in PDVSA JV; parallel L0 Energy Monopoly track while Middle East escalates.
Signal #005
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