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Event Archive

Every significant signal — scored, sourced, and analyzed. Multimedia evidence pages showing what happened, what it means for the model, and the gap between words and actions.

April 10, 2026

30
L1 BIF-1AttritionABMWords-vs-Actions
10 April 2026
Iranian Strike Destroys $1.1B AN/FPS-132 Radar at Al-Udeid
Key US ballistic-missile early-warning radar at Qatar's Al-Udeid base rendered scrap; feeds THAAD and Patriot layered defense.
Signal #005
Branch A Swift 15% → 13% ▼Branch B Bloody Landing 57% → 60% ▲ (shared signal)
28
L0 MonopolyChinaTaiwanLinkage
10 April 2026
NYT: China Quietly Pushed Iran to Talk with US — Taiwan Leverage for Xi-Trump Summit
Beijing extracts diplomatic authority by brokering Iran flexibility; plans to trade at Xi-Trump summit for Trump movement on Taiwan 'one-China' posture.
Signal #005
20
NL-1TalksPakistanIslamabad
10 April 2026
NYT: Islamabad in Lockdown Mode Ahead of US-Iran Talks
3 km security cordon around Serena Hotel — Pakistan signals these talks are real, not theater.
Signal #005
25
L0 FragmentationSanctionsRubioStructural
10 April 2026
Rubio: US Loses Ability to Impose Sanctions Within 5 Years
Secretary of State acknowledges dollar de-centering compressed timeline: sanctions tool effectively dead when non-USD settlements dominate.
Signal #005
Endgame Fragmentation 52% → 53% ▲ (shared signal)Endgame US Monopoly 13% → 12% ▼ (shared signal)
27
L0 FragmentationHormuzTollLebanon
10 April 2026
Iran Switches Hormuz Toll to Rials; Lebanon Ceasefire is Precondition for Talks
Currency of settlement shifts from yuan to Iranian rials; Islamabad talks stall on Lebanon condition.
Signal #005
Endgame Fragmentation 52% → 53% ▲ (shared)

April 8, 2026

34
USS Tripoli31st MEUAmphibiousNarrative CorrectionForce SizeCENTCOMSignal-004
13 March – 08 April 2026
USS Tripoli ARG: Real Deployment, Inflated Narrative
USS Tripoli (LHA-7) + 31st MEU entered CENTCOM AOR late March with ~3,500 personnel — not the 20,000 Marines OSINT channels claim. A narrative correction event: the observed force is coercive signaling + NEO/CSAR + island-raid capable, but insufficient for mainland amphibious assault without a second ARG.
Signal #004
38
L1 BIF-1Force PostureWords vs ActionsCarriersB-2 MOPAmphibiousDiego Garcia
08 April 2026
Three Carriers + Two ARGs + 6 B-2s: The Full MOP Strike Package Is Being Generated During the Ceasefire
Lincoln CSG on station, Ford CSG deployment extended to 11 months, Bush CSG sortied Norfolk 7 days before truce. Tripoli ARG in theater, Boxer ARG accelerated from San Diego. 6 B-2 Spirits confirmed at Diego Garcia 2026-04-01 via Planet Labs — exactly the 2025 Fordow strike package. Every decision pre-dates the ceasefire; none were reversed.
Signal #004
BIF-1 Ground Op 71% → 72% ▲Branch B (Bloody Landing) 52% → 54% ▲Branch C (Op Delayed) 32% → 30% ▼
37
BIF-1Branch BLebanonHezbollahCeasefire FractureWords vs Actions
08 April 2026
Ceasefire Fractures on Lebanon: IDF Hits ~100 Hezbollah Sites
Netanyahu declares ceasefire does not cover Lebanon; IDF executes largest single-day strike wave of the war in ~10 minutes on Apr 8 — ceasefire did not survive 24 hours on the Lebanon axis.
Signal #004
BIF-1 Ground Op 72% → 73% ▲Branch B Bloody Landing 56% → 57% ▲Branch C Op Delayed 29% → 28% ▼
38
L0 Energy MonopolyBIF-1HormuzYuanUSDStructural
08 April 2026
Hormuz Toll Booth Goes Operational in Yuan
IRGC toll regime on Strait of Hormuz verified operational with yuan/stablecoin settlement; ceasefire locks in rather than dismantles structural USD attack.
Signal #004
Endgame US Monopoly 15% → 13% ▼Endgame Fragmentation 50% → 52% ▲
32
BIF-1CeasefireAnchor EventIslamabadWords vs Actions
08 April 2026
Iran SNSC Formally Accepts 2-Week Ceasefire
Iran's Supreme National Security Council ratified a 2-week halt Apr 8 with embedded conditions (Hormuz under Iranian AF, sanctions relief, US base withdrawal) Trump has not publicly agreed to.
Signal #004
BIF-1 Ground Op 73% → 72% ▼Branch C Op Delayed 28% → 29% ▲Endgame Diplomatic 6% → 7% ▲
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