Event Archive
Every significant signal — scored, sourced, and analyzed. Multimedia evidence pages showing what happened, what it means for the model, and the gap between words and actions.
April 25, 2026
17-24 April 2026
Energy Crisis Cascade: Triple Squeeze
IEA declares worst energy crisis in history as Russian exports drop 16%, Kazakhstan bans fuel exports, and Panama Canal hits 40-day queue.
Signal #006
Endgame: Fragmentation 55% → 57% ▲+2Endgame: Chaos 28% → 27% ▼-1Endgame: US Monopoly 11% → 10% ▼-1
17-24 April 2026
Peak Airlift + 3-CSG Confirmed + AD Repositioned
CENTCOM confirms 3 carriers in AOR — first time in decades. Airlift at 15-20/day. Patriot/THAAD repositioned. Zero amphibious ships spotted.
Signal #006
BIF-1 72% → 74% ▲+2BIF-1b 28% → 26% ▼-2
17 April 2026
Ford CSG Transits Suez; Bush CSG Rounds Africa
Two carrier strike groups converging on CENTCOM AOR — Ford through Suez Apr 16, Bush via Cape of Good Hope with 3 destroyers and supply ship.
Signal #006
17-24 April 2026
Bushehr Evacuated — Nuclear Pre-Strike Indicator
Russia pulls 600 personnel from Bushehr NPP as Iran double-refuses uranium transfer and Trump disavows nuclear weapons use.
Signal #006
BIF-1 Gate (Ground Op) 74% → 76% (+2)BIF-1b (No Landing) 26% → 24% (-2)BIF-2 TNW Deployed 17% → 18% (+1)
18-23 April 2026
Hormuz Kinetic Escalation — IRGC Fires on Ships
UKMTO confirms IRGC fired on container ship in Hormuz. Pentagon: mine clearance 6 months. US intercepts 2 Iranian supertankers.
Signal #006
Branch B (Bloody Landing) 58% → 60% (+2)Branch C (Op Delayed) 28% → 29% (+1)Branch A (Swift Capture) 14% → 11% (-3)
18-25 April 2026
Iran Stalls Talks, Parades Missiles, Then Sends FM
Iran refuses 2nd round, parades MRBMs, then FM Araghchi arrives Pakistan for talks. Multi-audience signaling, not negotiation progress.
Signal #006
NL-3 (Negotiated Freeze) 13% → 13% (HOLD)
18-25 April 2026
Russia-Iran Axis: Sequential Extraction
Russia secures Hormuz fee exemption, US oil waivers, and Bushehr evacuation simultaneously. Neutral beneficiary or preparation for action?
Signal #006
BIF-3 RU Offensive 28% → 29% ▲+1BIF-3 RU Diplomacy 33% → 32% ▼-1BIF-3 RU Status Quo 39% → 39% HOLD
25 April 2026
US-China Proxy War Through Iran Accelerates
Hengli + 40 firms sanctioned, Indian refineries pay Iran in yuan, Pentagon requests $2B Taiwan aid. Taiwan-Iran linkage confirmed 2/3.
Signal #006
Endgame Fragmentation 55% -> 57% +2Endgame US Monopoly 11% -> 9% -2Endgame Chaos 28% -> 29% +1
19 April 2026
31st MEU Seizes Iranian Ship — Blockade Goes Kinetic
First boarding action: 31st MEU + USS Spruance seize MV Touska near Hormuz (Apr 19). Second boarding: M/T Tifani in INDOPACOM (Apr 21). 31 ships turned back total.
Signal #006
BIF-1 Ground Operation 72% HOLD