Event Archive
Every significant signal — scored, sourced, and analyzed. Multimedia evidence pages showing what happened, what it means for the model, and the gap between words and actions.
April 25, 2026
22-24 April 2026
Ceasefire Timer — Bush Trigger Armed
Trump ties ceasefire to USS Bush arrival. Bush arrived Apr 24. Iran says: 'ceasefire has no meaning.' Israel secures northern flank. The countdown is observable.
Signal #006
BIF-1 Gate (Ground Op) 76% → 78% (+2)BIF-1b (No Landing) 24% → 22% (-2)Branch A (Swift Capture) 11% → 9% (-2)
23 April 2026
EU Jet Fuel Crisis: Lufthansa Cuts 20K Flights
Hormuz closure chokes 75% of Europe's jet fuel supply; IEA warns 6-week exhaustion; Lufthansa slashes 20,000 flights through October.
Signal #006
Fragmentation Endgame 53% → 55% ▲US Monopoly Endgame 12% → 11% ▼
23 April 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei Gravely Wounded, IRGC Runs Iran
Supreme Leader's injuries confirmed severe — facial burns, leg surgeries. IRGC 'triangle of power' (Taeb, Rezaei, Ghalibaf) governing. Communication via handwritten couriers.
Signal #006
NL-5 Pre-landing Regime Change 5% HOLD
24 April 2026
US Sanctions 41 Chinese Entities; Xi Summit May 14
OFAC hits Hengli Petrochemical and 40 Iran-linked shipping firms. Trump-Xi summit locked for May 14-15 in Beijing. China calls sanctions 'illegal.'
Signal #006
NL-4 US Withdrawal / Pacific Pivot 12% HOLD
24 April 2026
Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Extended But Hollow
Apr 16 ceasefire extended 3 weeks on Apr 23, but both sides violating continuously — Hezbollah calls it 'meaningless'.
Signal #006
NL-3 Negotiated Freeze 15% → 12% ▼NL-1 Indefinite Reload 40% → 43% ▲
25 April 2026
Trump Cancels Islamabad Delegation — Talks Collapse
Araghchi departed after delivering demands. Trump cancelled Kushner/Witkoff trip: 'too much time and too expensive.' Diplomatic track dead.
Signal #006
NL-3 Negotiated Freeze 15% → 10% ▼NL-1 Indefinite Reload 40% → 45% ▲
25 April 2026
Turkey-Israel Confrontation Escalates to Pre-War
Erdogan threatens invasion ('just as we entered Libya and Karabakh'), deploys F-16s to N. Cyprus, imposes soft blockade. Israel weighing strike.
Signal #006
Fragmentation Endgame 53% → 54% ▲US Monopoly Endgame 12% → 11% ▼
April 16, 2026
16 April 2026
OPEC Output Falls to 7.88 mbd — 40-Year Low
March crude output is the deepest OPEC cut since 1980s; physical supply shock compounds the blockade demand shock.
Signal #005
Endgame Fragmentation 52% → 53% ▲ (shared)
16 April 2026
Yedioth: Trump Forced Lebanon Ceasefire to Preserve Iran Talks
Israeli outlet reports Trump ordered Lebanon ceasefire due to risk of Iran negotiation breakdown — confirms Iran's Lebanon precondition bit.
Signal #005
16 April 2026
House War Powers Resolution Fails by One Vote — 213 to 214
After Senate rejection, House fails to pass resolution limiting Trump's war powers against Iran; structural green light for indefinite operation.
Signal #005
Branch C Op Delayed 28% → 27% ▼